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• Video: Fed cut momentum builds again as oil softens and metals tighten | Dec 25

Overview: Oil market is covered in depth weekly on The Oil Report.

Selection criteria at bottom of report. Note dynamic levels, ie.vwap levels can and will shift intraday.

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Market 1: Silver

Symbol:

Structure: IB Up as fuck!

Setup type: IPB Long W+1

Bias: Long.

Notes: C.O.T analysis below as of Dec 2nd. COT will not be fully back up to date until 31st Jan. All charts are from the Duggan Capital proprietary COT analysis software.

Specs .ie managed money are NOT on this bull move. This is good for further upside. Once they start stepping in on the long side, the upside move will become even more unstable. What you want to look out for is when the commercials stop buying this and actually go net seller. Commercials will sell the lock in current prices. See below for current commercial selling levels.

Commercials are only at the approx 25th percentile of their all-time long positioning. So this can run A LOT MORE TO THE UPSIDE.

Here is the commercials short side all time observations. Currently at 82nd percentile. So yeah, not max levels at all.

Market 2: Gold

Symbol: $GC

Structure: IB Up

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Covering XLE, ORACLE, Ouster, Eco petrol

Dec 15, 2025

Overview: Covering XLE, ORACLE, Ouster, Eco petrol

Notes: I’m going to be looking at longer dated plays in the report. Think more swing and position rather than intraday. There is market liquidity from The Fed coming back into markets. We can NOT stand in front of this with selling.

The Fed Is Buying Billions in T-Bills. Just Don’t Call It QE.

Oil market is covered in depth weekly on The Oil Report.

Selection criteria at bottom of report. Note dynamic levels, ie. vwap levels can and will shift intraday.

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Market 1: XLE - Energy EFT of S&P500

Symbol: XLE -1.06%↓

Structure: IB Up on Decade and Year.

Setup type: IPB Long Y+1 $45.50

Bias: Long and willing to double down on pullback to Decade VWAP $33.30s

Notes:

In summary-This is now an AI energy needs and build out correlated play.

I’ve traded XLE -1.06%↓ a few times this year, all from the short side, and ended up roughly flat. The last stopped-out put spread was the tell: the usual linkage between crude and the $XLE complex has broken down. The trade stopped making the sense it used to.

The reason is the AI build-out. For the last three years, I’ve been vocal about being long the energy side of AI’s power demand. That theme is now getting priced: XLE components are being bid on future energy requirements and the cash flows that come with them. Layer on top a Fed that’s effectively re-opening the liquidity taps, and I see XLE outperforming over the next 12 months.

I’m not excited about chasing the move here, but any market shakeout that pulls XLE back offers real value. Ideally, I’d like to start building size around the decade VWAP, roughly $33. With fresh Fed liquidity in play, I doubt we get that gift in the near term, but my bias is still for XLE to grind higher from here and ultimately take out all-time highs.

I see this pullback being a strong deep value play, but I am going to start tip toeing into XLE here. Oracle has extended its 2026 build out cap ex to $50bln (12bln in a single quarter, mostly on GPUs and data centre kit. The market does not like this spend level. Oracle is 45% down from its highs, while XLE -1.06%↓ IS UP 3.35% for the same period. This tells me that the delta correlation is low.

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Market 2: ORACLE

Symbol: ORCL -2.81%↓

Structure: IB Up on the decade. IB Up on context only on year.

Setup type: IPB Long DECADE +1 $191.71 AND/OR BPB Long YPVAL $167.89

Bias: Long

Notes: In summary, Oracle are positioning for dominance of the AI infrastructure space with this new level of Capex. I think the market it spooked, however The Fed are coming in with more liquidity to the market with Bond purchasing back. This will cause further inflation of risk assets.

Oracle is front-loading a massive AI datacentre push(+$50bln in 2026), jacking FY26 capex and lease commitments to eye-watering levels and driving deep negative free cash flow on top of an already heavy debt load, which is starting to worry credit markets. A big chunk of this spend is effectively pre-building capacity for a small set of AI customers (notably OpenAI/Stargate), creating concentration and utilisation risk if demand slows or shifts. At the same time, Oracle faces real-world execution bottlenecks (power, labour, build timelines), so it’s plugging the funding gap with a mix of bonds, long-dated leases and customer/supplier financing. Net-net, it’s a huge, leveraged timing bet: cash and risk are front-end loaded, while the AI revenue that justifies it is still largely back-end and unproven.

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Market 3: Ouster

Symbol: OUST -8.45%↓

Structure:

Setup type: IPB Long Decade VWAP.

Bias:

Notes: I like this company from a technology POV and its current runway. Technically, this is well positioned to go aggressively imbalanced up. This is what average price tells me. Buyers have clearly come in to support Decade VWAP at $18.96s. I see this general support continuing. It’s another 270% up to resistance at $78.

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Market 4: Ecopetrol SA

Symbol: EC -0.98%↓ TTM Dividend yield 10.19%

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Notes: I’m going to be looking at longer dated plays in the report. Think more swing and position rather than intraday. There is market liquidity from The Fed coming back into markets. We can NOT stand in front of this with selling.

The Fed Is Buying Billions in T-Bills. Just Don’t Call It QE.

Oil market is covered in depth weekly on The Oil Report.

Selection criteria at bottom of report. Note dynamic levels, ie. vwap levels can and will shift intraday.

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Market 1: XLE - Energy EFT of S&P500

Symbol:

Structure: IB Up on Decade and Year.

Setup type: IPB Long Y+1 $45.50

Bias: Long and willing to double down on pullback to Decade VWAP $33.30s

Notes:

In summary-This is now an AI energy needs and build out correlated play.

I’ve traded a few times this year, all from the short side, and ended up roughly flat. The last stopped-out put spread was the tell: the usual linkage between crude and the $XLE complex has broken down. The trade stopped making the sense it used to.

The reason is the AI build-out. For the last three years, I’ve been vocal about being long the energy side of AI’s power demand. That theme is now getting priced: XLE components are being bid on future energy requirements and the cash flows that come with them. Layer on top a Fed that’s effectively re-opening the liquidity taps, and I see XLE outperforming over the next 12 months.

I’m not excited about chasing the move here, but any market shakeout that pulls XLE back offers real value. Ideally, I’d like to start building size around the decade VWAP, roughly $33. With fresh Fed liquidity in play, I doubt we get that gift in the near term, but my bias is still for XLE to grind higher from here and ultimately take out all-time highs.

I see this pullback being a strong deep value play, but I am going to start tip toeing into XLE here. Oracle has extended its 2026 build out cap ex to $50bln (12bln in a single quarter, mostly on GPUs and data centre kit. The market does not like this spend level. Oracle is 45% down from its highs, while IS UP 3.35% for the same period. This tells me that the delta correlation is low.

Market 2: ORACLE

Symbol:

Structure: IB Up on the decade. IB Up on context only on year.

Setup type: IPB Long DECADE +1 $191.71 AND/OR BPB Long YPVAL $167.89

Bias: Long

Notes: In summary, Oracle are positioning for dominance of the AI infrastructure space with this new level of Capex. I think the market it spooked, however The Fed are coming in with more liquidity to the market with Bond purchasing back. This will cause further inflation of risk assets.

Oracle is front-loading a massive AI datacentre push(+$50bln in 2026), jacking FY26 capex and lease commitments to eye-watering levels and driving deep negative free cash flow on top of an already heavy debt load, which is starting to worry credit markets. A big chunk of this spend is effectively pre-building capacity for a small set of AI customers (notably OpenAI/Stargate), creating concentration and utilisation risk if demand slows or shifts. At the same time, Oracle faces real-world execution bottlenecks (power, labour, build timelines), so it’s plugging the funding gap with a mix of bonds, long-dated leases and customer/supplier financing. Net-net, it’s a huge, leveraged timing bet: cash and risk are front-end loaded, while the AI revenue that justifies it is still largely back-end and unproven.

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Market 3: Ouster

Symbol:

Structure:

Setup type: IPB Long Decade VWAP.

Bias:

Notes: I like this company from a technology POV and its current runway. Technically, this is well positioned to go aggressively imbalanced up. This is what average price tells me. Buyers have clearly come in to support Decade VWAP at $18.96s. I see this general support continuing. It’s another 270% up to resistance at $78.

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Market 4: Ecopetrol SA

Symbol: TTM Dividend yield 10.19%

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Selection criteria at bottom of report. Note dynamic levels, ie.vwap levels can and will shift intraday.

Notes:

1 Markets await the Fed rate decision this Wednesday. Expected rate cut 25bps (0.25%) at a probability currently of 87.4%.

2: Trading and execution. Understanding the difference between CFDs and Futures is a must. A failure to understand the key difference is a big issue. CFDs are derrivitives of futures markets. This means that not every tick and market movement in futures is truely mirror reflected in the CFD. A futures market on NYMEX Oil is CLF2026, this is the true futures market for oil and the spot at the same time as it is the front month i.e the first next contract to setrtle on NYMEX for WTI crude. If you are trading USOIL, this is a derrivitive on NYMEX CL front month. If over the open oil moves 20 ticks up, then 50 down in the first 5 mins- the CFD USOil may only move 17 ticks up and 53 ticks down. The CFD is simply not a real futures market. In the old days, the CFD practice was called Bucketing, performed by Bucket Shops-famously covered in ‘Reminiscence of a stock operator. Some more on the practice here.

• “Where the Common People Could Speculate”: The Ticker, Bucket Shops, and the Origins of Popular Participation in Financial Markets, 1880-1920

CFDs are not the same as futures. If you trade CFDs instead of futures, try to align your CFD charts (e.g., daily and 30-minute candles) with what you’d see on the futures market. The best way to follow my approach is to use the same analysis and tools I use—so you’re trading what you see, not treating this like a “signal service.” This is not a signal service. Also, the charts I post are not predictions of the week ahead; they’re scenario maps—how I’d like to see price develop into areas where I plan to trade, and the outcomes I’m aiming for. That distinction matters: I’m outlining setups, not forecasting.

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Market 1: North European Oil Royalty Trust.

Symbol:

Structure: IB Up on the year.

Setup type: Gert long, stay long. IPB Long at $5.25 up to $5.87

Bias: Long medium and long term.

Notes: +56% YTD. This is my single largest holding. Currently offering a TTM (Total Twelve Month) yield of 12.62%. Read more on the companies website or on Trading View.

Market 2: Bitcoin CME futures

Symbol: BTC Z26

Structure: IB Up on Decade.

Setup type:

Bias: Long medium to long term.

Notes: Remember 10 trading sessions ago when the sky was falling on Crypto- that was the dip. This is a continuation trade on the long side that I issued over the last 2 weeks. Just making sure that people are trading that this trade is still holding the decade up -trend. Stops for me would be below the local low at $87,750

Ethereum: A compelling long picture on ETH also. Stops below $2600

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Market 3: FTSE London Futures.

Symbol: ZZ2026

Structure: IB Up on Decade, Year and Q. IB Down on week.

Setup type: IPB Long from MPVAL. Stop below. Then look for longs at Y+1

Bias: Short -short term/ Intraday. Long, medium to long term.

Notes: For the longer duration trade, buy the first pullback to Y+1.

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Market 4: Silver futures

Symbol: SIH26- Most volume seems to be trading there.

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Articles

• Asia markets open December mixed as China factory activity weakens unexpectedly

• Polar Vortex Watch: A large Polar Vortex core is about to dive into North America, bringing snow and cold weather to last

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Overview: Oil market is covered in depth weekly on The Oil Report.

Selection criteria at bottom of report. Note dynamic levels, ie.vwap levels can and will shift intraday.

Notes on last week’s ES selling spots.

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Market 1: ES Futures

Symbol: ESZ25

Structure: IB Up on Year, Flat on Q. Balanced to rotational down on Month.

Setup type: Short MPVAH on retest, short vwap.

Bias: Short intraday to QVWAP. Then looking for longs at or above $6756.00 QVWAP

Notes: The poor Chinese PMI data is weighing on markets this morning. This has to be factored into the observed pattern that if they sell in electronic, they buy it up ion the US session. Let’s see if this plays out today. I have seen days like this before, where poor overnight Chinese data can drag on the US markets for the entire day. So be open to how the market digests this.

Market 2: Henry Hub Nat Gas

Symbol: NGF26

Structure: IB Up on Y & Q. Flat to rotational on Decade.

Setup type: RPB Deca +1/ $4.949

Bias: short after trade above $4.949.

Notes: Natty is seasonally cued up for selling on the F contract, however weather dynamics hold prices firm.

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Market 3: Soy meal futures

Symbol: ZMF26

Structure: IB Up on year failing. ie. Y+1 getting sold. Rotational of prior years value.

Setup type: IPB Long QVWAP. Confluent with YPVAH $308.8

Bias: Long once we trade QVWAP.

Notes: Seasonally to stay bid through to end of Dec.

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Market 4: NVIDIA

Symbol:

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Oil market is covered in depth weekly on The Oil Report.

Selection criteria at bottom of report. Note dynamic levels, ie.vwap levels can and will shift intraday across all timeframes.

General notes: A top level snapshot from our C.O.T (Commitment of traders) analysis tool. This chart shows the changes in open interest since our last C.O.T data on September 30th.

Notes from COT.

Gold Spec longs appear to be building again, but not at crowded levels at all. Next week I think will be interesting from COT here given the max fear going into Fridays close.

Market 1: Nat Gas

Symbol: NGF26

Structure: IB Up

Setup type: IP Long ETH VWAP or IPB Long to electronic opening range Monday. Not an easy one.

Bias: Long above MVWAP.

Notes: Spec Shorts are coming off crowded high levels over September (above 90th percentile). Given that we have no data in October, we can imagine if they stayed that short, they would have been ripped with the Gas rally. I think seasonally we are due a pullback in Gas as we move into trading the Jan 26 contract (last week we rolled on volume).

On our momentum table, we can see they added +3389 long contracts to + approx 600 shorts. I think we go up again in Natty. I think there will be a ton of people who want to step in front of this train, so while seasonality say we got to start selling off, that can wait until we hit some of these big upside targets. Added to this, Specs are increasing longs. I’m not going against them. As always, buy it as cheap as you think it will get .ie no chasing at the tops or chasing at the bottoms.

If this market needs to retest Q+1, It may come under fires and be a signal that the top of this rally is in for now. I would turn bearish below MVWAP.

Market 2: S&P500

Symbol: ESZ25

Structure: Imbalanced up on Year and Quarter. IB Down on Month.

Setup type: Breakout pullback short on Month’s area.

Bias: Short

Notes: This may lift above MPVAL.

Market 3: Dax

Symbol: FDAXZ25

Structure: IB Up on Year. IB Down on Quarter.

Setup type: bpb sHORT qpval confluent with

Bias:

Notes: The strongest stock indicies globally all year. This may be a canary in the coalmine. A test of QPVAL here in my view will be sold.

Market 4: Bitcoin CME

Symbol: BTCZ25

Structure: IB Up on Decade and Year. IB Down on Quarter. IB Down on Month. Balanced on Week.

Setup type: BPB Long PVAL CONFLUENT with WPVAL.

Bias: Long.

Notes: Market must stay closing days above YPVAH / Decade+1

Market 5: German 10year BUND futures.

Symbol: FGBLZ25

Structure: IB Down on Year. Balanced on Quarter. Balanced on Monthly.

Setup type: Pattern shift long M-1/ Pullback long QPVAL

Bias: Long.

Notes: Market must stay closing days above QPVAL

Have fun out there.

Market 1: DOW Futures.

Symbol: YMZ25

Structure: IB Up on the year and decade. IB Down on Monthly & Weekly Value.

Setup type: IPB Long Y+1.

Bias: Intraday short to Y+1. Position trade: Long Y+1.

Notes: id this isnt the low of the pullback, we are going to shit the bed on equity markets. The talk of the A.I Bubble pop is way overdone. We have sold down to strong dynamic (vwap) value levels. I like this long.

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‘‘Rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated” Mark Twain

Folks, if you like this content, please do smash the like button. You could even go wild and hit the share button. All would be much appreciated.

Overview: There is a small amount of deleveraging that we are hearing reports about across the AI tech sector- Palantir etc. While this may be fact, we have not seen the traditional elements of any wholesale selling .ie Deleveraging. I think a further dip will bring us into major algo triggering levels, where we can easily drive higher from. The market anticipates another 25bps rate cut next month.

Meanwhile, on Thursday we get the anticipated September NFP data release. The market seems to be repricing into this event. Sell the rumour, buy the fact!

Oil market is covered in depth weekly on The Oil Report.

Selection criteria at bottom of report. Note dynamic levels, ie.vwap levels can and will shift intraday.

Market 1: S&P500 Futures.

Symbol: ESZ25

Structure: IB Up on the year and decade. IB Down on Monthly & Weekly Value.

Setup type: IPB Long Y+1.

Bias: Intraday short to Y+1. Position trade: Long Y+1.

Notes: The long price action must lift this market back above Q-PVAH $6603.00 rapidly. If not, bears will utilise this level as an area to sell. So a buy the dip op will present itself. Monitor through the lens of Monthly value and averages.

Deleveraging seems to be now set into some of the AI big names, with Google being the exception, on the back of Berkshire Hathaway’s recent entry. The selling this week and last is grossly over talked and participants are fearful.

Market 2: NASDAQ

Symbol: NQZ25

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I want to take another day to look at these markets before posting the report for this week. I will publish tomorrow. I think that this data will cause a huge amount of price discovery coming into the weeks end.

In the report tomorrow, I will be factoring in potentially larger moves than normal to occur.

Thank you for your patience and if you want a specific market looked at, please do leave a comment on this post and I will include it.

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Selection criteria at bottom of report. Note dynamic levels, ie.vwap levels can and will shift intraday.

Market 1: Platinum Futures.

Symbol: PLZ25

Structure: Imbalanced up over decade value area high. Expect further continuation.

Setup type: IPB Long Y+1- Confluent with QPVAH and DECAPVAH.

Bias: Long once we trade QPVAH approx $1,470.

Notes: Look for similar setup in Gold. A large down move in bonds/ UP in equities will help bring us into these levels.

Market 2: 5YR US TNOTE FUTURES

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Overview: Covering Gold, Dow Index, British pound, Bitcoin. Oil market is covered in depth weekly on The Oil Report.

Market 1: Gold futures

Symbol: GCZ25

Structure: Imbalanced Up.

Setup type: Imbalanced pullback long Y+1 $3801.8

Bias: Short pops, buy drops to Y+1.

Notes: Borrowing from the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility hit a record US $50.35 billion on Friday (31 Oct 2025) — the highest level since the SRF was launched in 2021. This signals significant short-term liquidity demand in the financial system.
While this doesn’t automatically equate to “buying returning” in the markets, it does suggest participants are tapping cash at scale — a factor worth watching as it can underpin both funding-driven flows and directional bias. In short-High potential to cause flight out of DXY to gold/ precious metals.

Market 2: Dow Futures.

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The focus will be on what matters most — the trade section, technical read, and COT positioning.

COT data coverage will resume as soon as the U.S. government shutdown ends. Until then, I’ll use relevant positioning proxies and open interest signals to keep the analysis actionable.

Pricing is being reduced to $5/month for paid subscribers.

• Free subscribers will receive coverage on one market each week.

• Paid subscribers will get access to at least three markets that are “in play” — those offering clean setups or clear structural opportunities.

Thanks for your patience during the pause — the goal now is simple: deliver a sharper, faster, trader’s report each week.

— Tim
The VWAP Report

Billing will be paused on all accounts for the period.

Work will continue on The Oil Report weekly.

When we start back up, I hope to being in some big value add changes for subs. Stay tuned.

Please be mindful of The FOMC this Wednesday where Powell is set to cut rates by 25bps. Lets see if that's what we get.

Best

Tim

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Many are touting this BLS revision to be an -800k reading. If you are unsure what that means? It’s bad….very bad. Indicating the US has lost about net 1.5million jobs since 2023. If it comes out below 800k revised, I honestly dont think I even believe it- the administration runs the BLS now.

Markets will be extremely volatile, but they will buy the dip. What is the trade?

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Make no mistake, the bid that underpins all weakness is FOMC to cut 25bps in September. Read below

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To do this, I will cut the macro and calendar section. I will be sharing Comittment of traders data that we analyse with our propritary software. This is of strong value to any market participants. This week, Im going to leave this open to all and any who want to see what this all looks like, before we put thisd behind a paywall going forward.

The format is now

1. Views- a short abbreviated dialogue on what I am generally thinking about for the markiets for the week.

2. Articles-curated macro and market pieces worth your time

3. Trade – actionable charts and VWAP-based trade hypos

The simple reason is, I don’t want to look back at my reports and time spent, and see that I have amplified the noise around markets. It is irrelevant. What is important is price action and the setups.

I will still maintain the articles section as a curated type of macro section.

Let me know your feedback…no really, send me a message!

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The data for Q2 was good. Markets took strength from that and will continue to. There is NO SUCH THING as bad data until we get to the 17th September FOMC. Powell is expected to cut. Insanity, but he will most probably bow to the Trump pressure. It would be amazing if he did the prudent thing and hiked, however it’s a group vote. Trump is making inroads with filling out the board of governors with Doves.

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ES

Commitment Of Traders

Non-coms continue to sell into these higher prices. Note a massive change on June 17th just in the middle of the 12-day war with Israel which saw a WoW increase of 55,754 in non-com shorts.

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On the long side, light participation. The ‘‘sophisticated money’’ i.e Non commercials -indeed is selling the entire rally. It is only now that as we face NFP this Friday and the FOMC 17th Sept, that things are starting to look like they might pay out. Will they stay liquid throughout?

Crowding wise, Non coms shorts are only at 83rd percentile. So they could be more short.

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NASDAQ

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Non-com longs here into the 90th percentile. They have been a lot longer, like in early 2024. I suspect all the equities can have a sideways to up approach into the September FOMC. There are no real signs of weakness out there AT THIS TIME.

There are some great higher timeframe levels to work off of, but this is a beast of volatility.

Open interest actually dropped WoW -9143 contracts. 8000 of which were longs.

RTY Russell

Interesting that the Non -coms net position open interest increased from 12.4% the week prior to 25.3% WoW change. All time observations. A 100% increase WoW. Non-coms are building up their long position in the small caps here a small bit, as we face deep into the headwinds of NFP and FOMC.

Clearly this was a flattening of shorts as pictured below with a small increase in longs. This tells me that the hedge to the big caps is gathering momentum on the long side.

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GC GOLD

It’s a full on breakout. The risks are compounding now. A fed that is going to cut into poppy inflation that has massive upside risks. An overheated tech sector and a DXY that is on fire. I’m not even going to get into the potential for Trump and Bessent to revalue gold. From a technical point of view, these breakouts are mostly followed by a few days counter move. I’m looking at Monthly PVAH to bring back the buyers.

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Non-coms seem to be selling in the last 2 weeks into these highs, This is going to hurt. Only about 6% of all trading activity in this market is spread i.e Delta neutral-(less prone to large moves in the front outright)

C.O.T has not been a great indicator on gold at all through this power drive the last 12 months. Central banks making up the lions share of the scramble for physical bullion will not show up here.

SI Silver

Back to the futures! 1980 High $41.50 trading - Monday. Yehaww! Can it continue? Lets see.

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When the horse bolts, dont chase it. I hold very little optimism this will pull back anytime soon to MPVAH $39’s. But if it does, I like that price for longs. However, as long as commercials keep selling into the market, price will facilitate higher. See below.

Silver open interest not even that crowded as per last weeks C.O.T report. 79.8% all time observations.

On the commercials side, they are locking in future delivery prices, selling here at the 89th percentile all time levels.

A canary in the coal mine here, is that we should be really attentive to when commercials start to retrace on their selling. This will make it harder for non-coms and small specs to continue the rally.

Alright folks. To wrap this up, I think we are entering a turbulent time for the markets.

This week’s NFP print will be pivotal. A significant miss could trigger a brief dip, but I’d expect markets to rally as traders price in potential FOMC easing over the next two weeks.

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If that dip fails to get bought and losses extend toward - say -12% from the highs, the Fed would almost certainly be forced into rate cuts—regardless of the risk of overheating and runaway inflation, raising echoes of the 1970s. The deeper the pullback, the more pressure on Powell.

On the other hand, if equities rally despite a weak data print, Powell may be emboldened to hold rates steady and attempt to rein in frothy valuations.

Its a game that changes the type of ball and pitch each and every day.

We will be watching.

Be good.

Tim