last week about a few different things- notably his trip to Ireland. Over the conversation he mentioned he was in a DXY trade short.. Ive gotten back to my desk this lunch time to see DXY is getting hammered. Thought it was interesting from an auction perspective on the Yearly -vwap. Have a look here at the Daily bars- Yearly vwap.
DXY DAily bars. Yearly VWAP.
It's a great chart that exhibits my edge quite well. We look to be long assets that are imbalanced up ie. above their Y-VWAP or Above their prior value area high [PVAH]. You can clearly see the DXY here is now below its PVAH. You can also see that when the market broke below that PVAH 105.0516 subsequently over the last 2 weeks sellers have unloaded a few cans of shorts from that level. This trade is called an RPB Short in my edge. Return Pullback Short ie. We have returned back into the prior value area and we can not hold above. So we then look for shorts. We trade this and 2 other alternatives of this on 5 different timeframes.
Would expect DXY to drop to the nearterm support of the Q-PVAH 104.245 and then show its hand. Conversely, with the Yearly average price trading down through its prior auction-that on the Quarterly time frame, we are still imbalanced above the Q-PVAH.
DXY Daily bars. Quarterly -vwap
So for me, this sets the scene for buyers to come and defend the Quarterly auction up, but then get handed a sick bag and we go lower on DXY.
As always, notwithstanding an acute rise in geopolitical risk.
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DXY Weakness
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It's a great chart that exhibits my edge quite well. We look to be long assets that are imbalanced up ie. above their Y-VWAP or Above their prior value area high [PVAH]. You can clearly see the DXY here is now below its PVAH. You can also see that when the market broke below that PVAH 105.0516 subsequently over the last 2 weeks sellers have unloaded a few cans of shorts from that level. This trade is called an RPB Short in my edge. Return Pullback Short ie. We have returned back into the prior value area and we can not hold above. So we then look for shorts. We trade this and 2 other alternatives of this on 5 different timeframes.
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NOTE: I am not in this trade.
Would expect DXY to drop to the nearterm support of the Q-PVAH 104.245 and then show its hand. Conversely, with the Yearly average price trading down through its prior auction-that on the Quarterly time frame, we are still imbalanced above the Q-PVAH.
So for me, this sets the scene for buyers to come and defend the Quarterly auction up, but then get handed a sick bag and we go lower on DXY.
As always, notwithstanding an acute rise in geopolitical risk.
Keep it tight!