The VWAP Report

The VWAP Report

Share this post

The VWAP Report
The VWAP Report
Game of numbers

Game of numbers

One revision to ruin them all

Tim Duggan's avatar
Tim Duggan
Aug 03, 2025
∙ Paid

Share this post

The VWAP Report
The VWAP Report
Game of numbers
Share

August book recommendation: The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives by Zbigniew Brzezinski


In this report: NFP Revisions-The emperor has no clothes and trade charts for the week ES, YM, NAT GAS, PLATINUM. More on the history of American adventurism and why it matters now- over on The Oil Report this week in ‘The Heartland’


Calendar & Earnings

As a follow-up to Friday’s poor NFP, markets will focus on Thursdays jobs data. Earnings through the week from top tier names in Tech and media will play their part but won’t be over-riding the general weakness that MUST be priced further into markets.

Earnings

  • Mon: VRTX, PLTR, MELI.

  • Tues: CAT, ETN, PFE, AMGN, ANET, AMD.

  • Wed: DIS, UBER, MCD, DASH, SHOP, APP.

  • Thurs: CEG, LLY, COP, GILD.

  • Fri: N/A.


Articles

  • 5 questions Trump faces after dismal jobs report; BLS commissioner firing

  • Amazon is the worst performing stock in the Nasdaq 100.

  • Meta stock jumps 12% on Q2 earnings beat, better-than-expected Q3 outlook

  • House Prices In Gold Are Getting Cheaper (3 Charts)- MUST READ

  • Scientists create light-powered mic that hears speech from fluttering everyday objects

  • How US Fiscal Concerns Are Affecting Bonds, Currencies, and Stocks


Views & Macro

The gamification of US labour data finally got laid bare for what it is last Friday. Reality comes knocking. Risk on markets fell on Friday as a reaction to what was a whopping revision down from 147k jobs added in July to actually only 14k. on the MoM NFP. Private payrolls data not being much better.

July NFP released Aug 1st 2025.
List of revisions on NFP headline figures.

So the market acted accordingly and tipped over the edge on Friday. All markets reacted as normal, bonds bid up-crushing yields, Gold rallied immediately, DXY gave up the ghost on its multi-day upside pullback. Oil got dragged into the picture with a double whammy of OPEC+ announcing 6 mins before NFP, that it was pretty much a given they would go with a 548k boost for September. Turned out to be 546k, but who cares.

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to The VWAP Report to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Tim Duggan
Publisher Terms
Substack
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share