Monday 24th November 2025
Shaken not stirred
Overview: Covering Nat Gas, S&P500, Gold C.O.T, Dax, Bitcoin, Bund.
Oil market is covered in depth weekly on The Oil Report.
Selection criteria at bottom of report. Note dynamic levels, ie.vwap levels can and will shift intraday across all timeframes.
General notes: A top level snapshot from our C.O.T (Commitment of traders) analysis tool. This chart shows the changes in open interest since our last C.O.T data on September 30th.
Notes from COT.
Gold Spec longs appear to be building again, but not at crowded levels at all. Next week I think will be interesting from COT here given the max fear going into Fridays close.
Market 1: Nat Gas
Symbol: NGF26
Structure: IB Up
Setup type: IP Long ETH VWAP or IPB Long to electronic opening range Monday. Not an easy one.
Bias: Long above MVWAP.
Notes: Spec Shorts are coming off crowded high levels over September (above 90th percentile). Given that we have no data in October, we can imagine if they stayed that short, they would have been ripped with the Gas rally. I think seasonally we are due a pullback in Gas as we move into trading the Jan 26 contract (last week we rolled on volume).
On our momentum table, we can see they added +3389 long contracts to + approx 600 shorts. I think we go up again in Natty. I think there will be a ton of people who want to step in front of this train, so while seasonality say we got to start selling off, that can wait until we hit some of these big upside targets. Added to this, Specs are increasing longs. I’m not going against them. As always, buy it as cheap as you think it will get .ie no chasing at the tops or chasing at the bottoms.
If this market needs to retest Q+1, It may come under fires and be a signal that the top of this rally is in for now. I would turn bearish below MVWAP.
Market 2: S&P500
Symbol: ESZ25
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