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Todays action - slow

The market really has done nothing like what was expected on Sunday night over geopolitical risks. The market seems to want to hold on a little to finding out if Israel will launch a counter attack against Iran. This would be clearly against US advice, where Bidens team have said they will not ride in behind Bibi. However the wheels of war are turning. Iran will defend themselves now and in a much bigger way. This then plays straight into Israeli hands to lift the conflict to another level. I will be surprised if this does not escallate in the short term.

To wrap the action we have seen.

Equities had a positive reaction to the retail sales 0.7% beat on 0.4% expected. However those gains have been now priced out with a reversal barcode back down. NQ rejecting the Y+1 18337, ES attempting to develop support on the Q-PVAH 5178s and YM rejecting PVAH 38601. Please refer to the weekly report to look for where I am intersted in selling YM. Al be it late in the selling cycle for the DOW given the large selling we have seen.

Oil has been really nice in its selling against WPVAL 85.33s. Selling off there on 2 occassions where we have been short and exited from where we saw volume on the bids at 84.48s. Weekly downside targets remain at 83.66 and potentially 81.50.