Whipsaw
Dollar risk- Gold shines
In this report: Tariffs trigger volatility, inflation expectations hits 6.7%, the Fed stays sidelined, Gold nears its breakout target, and we revisit key trade setups on DXY, 6B, and equities.
An intense week on the markets for all concerned. By Wednesday, it felt like we were mid year, let alone mid week. I won’t add to the tsunami of coverage. Just summarise as below.
Articles
Foreign investors dump $6.5 billion of U.S. equities in a week
America’s tariffs are the worst policy shock in trade history
The world suddenly has a plausible alternative to US treasuries
Everything You Need to Know About the Basis Trade Spooking Markets
The demographic divide: inequalities in ageing across the European Union
Just a recap for non premium subs on the trade charts. Last weeks CAD 6C chart was this.
IT DID THIS
Macro
Recap: April 7–11, 2025
Global markets experienced significant volatility this week, primarily driven by escalating trade tensions and rising economic uncertainty. President Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs—raising rates to 145% on Chinese imports—prompted immediate retaliation from China, which imposed 125% tariffs on U.S. goods. This tit-for-tat escalation sent equities lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both entering correction territory.
In response to the market turmoil, the White House announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs for countries engaged in trade negotiations, excluding China. The move provided temporary relief, sparking a modest rebound in risk assets late in the week.
Bond markets weren’t spared. Investors pulled a record $25.7 billion from global bond funds amid fears of stagflation and recession. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.45%, its largest weekly gain since 2001.
Consumer sentiment continued to erode. The University of Michigan’s index fell to 50.8 — the lowest since mid-2022 — while one-year inflation expectations jumped to 6.7%, the highest since the early 1980s.
Commodities softened across the board. Crude oil prices fell sharply on concerns over slowing global demand and rising supply expectations. Silver dropped nearly 15% as traders braced for weaker industrial activity.
A big shout out and thanks to the boys at News Squak for an exceptional job on coverage, especially over the last 5 days.
Views
Equities have certainly traded a range of value over the past 2 weeks, with lower bounds and retail investors dip buying capabilities tested to the max. We have seen incredible levels of retail purchasing last week. They bought the beautiful dip cause Trump told em to!
Not a normal dip
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