Liberty costs
Globalisation is dead- Long live polarity
In this week’s report: Liberation day expectations, Ireland sweating, Impacts of car tariffs- charts, full list of tariffs implemented to date, stock valuations cooling off-chart, trade charts .
Calendar
Wednesday April 2nd-Trumps ‘Liberation day’ tariff announcement is going to be the key to watch with NFP Friday to follow. While the market has been attentive to jobless figures, we have seen some bleeding in the Services PMI’s due Thursday of late that can add to the picture of the overall economy. Make no mistake, Wednesday will rearrange the furniture- something we have accustomed to with Trump 2.0. BUY THE RUMOUR,, SELL THE FACT also works as SELL THE RUMOUR, BUY THE FACT.
Earnings
Nothing of material market impact this week. Earnings take a backseat to macro and geopolitical risk.
Articles
Trump's 25% car tariff ignites international criticism
Microsoft pulls back from more data center leases in US and Europe, analysts say
EU Plans Concessions for Trump After Reciprocal Tariffs Hit
ASML will open Beijing facility despite US sanctions on China
The state of AI: How organizations are rewiring to capture value
Macro
America Inc. is in full flex mode. Liberation day, April 2nd, is the day where the White House will announce a purportedly large swath of tariffs on the rest of the world. In the lead up to this we have seen 25% tariffs on car imports to the US, already impacting some car brands more than others (more below). Added to this, Ireland holds its breath as Trump now has pharma in his sights. With 9 of the 10 biggest pharma companies with substantial operations in Ireland, a change to the picture will send shockwaves across Ireland’s vibrant economy. More below.
The broader impact from what may come on Wednesday can NOT be understated. If we thought we have seen volatility so far, prepare for one massive unload of volatility in Tuesday’s session. The tariffs are reported to be specific in nature rather than the broad sweeping ones we have seen so far- see list below.
Now is the time to be long Vol.
Full list of tariffs implimented to date
10% tariff on all Chinese imports
Implemented: February 4, 2025
Rationale: To counter trade imbalances and combat the flow of fentanyl and other illicit drugs into the U.S.25% tariff on all Canadian and Mexican imports
Status: Announced for February 4, 2025, but paused pending negotiations
Rationale: Intended to pressure both countries to take stronger action against illegal immigration and drug trafficking.10% tariff on Canadian energy products (oil, gas, electricity)
Status: Paused along with the broader Canada/Mexico tariffs
Rationale: A reduced-rate exception to avoid disruption of critical energy imports while maintaining leverage.25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports
Implemented: March 12, 2025
Rationale: To boost domestic steel and aluminum production and reduce reliance on foreign metals for national security reasons.25% tariff on imported passenger vehicles
To be implemented: April 3, 2025
Rationale: Intended to protect the U.S. auto industry from foreign competition and encourage domestic production.25% tariff on imported auto parts
To be implemented: No later than May 3, 2025
Rationale: Aimed at creating a full domestic supply chain for vehicle manufacturing. EU already prepping concessions to avoid25% tariff on goods from countries importing Venezuelan oil
To be implemented: April 2, 2025
Rationale: Designed to isolate the Maduro regime by penalizing its trading partners.
Car tariffs 25%
It is interesting to read which companies have already been moving manufacturing back into the US. From that, I could see those least and most hurt by the 25% import duties. Tesla and VW have been the best boys in school, while Ford and Stallantis have been the worst. A quick look at the spread of these companies shows that there is more room for TESLA and VW to out perform their peers as long as these tariffs last.
A brief nod here to the market cycle. Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity highlighted here. We’ve reached a point in the market cycle where rising stock prices are no longer being boosted by investor optimism (measured by the P/E ratio) like they were in 2023 and 2024. Back then, investors were willing to pay more for each dollar of earnings — that helped push prices up. Now, that effect is fading, which is normal in the later stages of a bull market.
The positive news? Stock valuations are cooling off faster than prices are rising. For example, the average price-to-free-cash-flow ratio (a way to measure how expensive stocks are) has dropped from 37 to 31 — still high, but heading in the right direction. And when you look at all stocks equally (not just the biggest ones), valuations are now closer to their typical levels over the past decade.
Trade
VIX
Copper
The OG recession barometer. This market's imbalance up towards all-time highs $945.90 looks set to pull back to Y+1 to reload buyers and continue the pump train to new ATHs."
Gold
There is still zero chance of getting a pullback on this market. The shift to safety is gathering MORE momentum, with a nice gap-up open of about 2% on Friday. Look for capitulation once we hit the 400% target $3329. Video explaining the entire move with Fibs here I did 2 weeks ago. For transparency- I’m happy to say I have bought bullion in the last week. Not so happy to chase price up here but its not a short or medium term investment. I am willing to rebuy up to a 40% correction over the next 5 years.
Golds path to $3000+/ Relative value on metals
I was having a look at relative performance of Gold/ Silver/ Platinum to DXY today. Some intersting perfoamance from the group of metals
Silver
The traditional laggard of the metals complex, silver squeezes have been often talked about but rarely happened. From the famous Hunt brothers' failed cornering attempt to conspiracy theories about Morgan Stanley’s constant rigging of this market. Is there ever a time that silver bugs aren’t touting market manipulation? Let’s shut the door on all that noise. Silver has been lifting all year. It has completed a .786% fib move of the similar type of fib history move that I outlined on gold. The next target up is the .886% fib extension at $39.125. The pivot area will be the .786% at $35.105. I would like to buy dips below.
ES
I am long April 7th 570 SPX puts (short the market) as of last week. I believe we are in a 'sell the rumor, buy the fact' situation with this Liberation Day noise. Look for initial moves down to continue Monday/Tuesday, even early Wednesday. Then, reversals could potentially come in confluent with the uptrend as outlined in the chart here. A technically nice-looking spot. A walk back of initial posturing would be the expected observed negotiation pattern. Will it be different this time?
NQ
Trend since 2023 is breaking. I don’t see NQ dodging this bullet as the market starts to price NVIDIA properly. A break here will not be slight. I expect capitulation on the massive tech bull run. If the economic picture is failing in the US, this will have bone-rattling consequences for the Mag 7 bottom lines. Everything is setting up for an incredibly interesting next two earnings seasons.
More selling from me expected here.
Keep tuned into the tariff picture on Wednesday with NFP Friday. I personally am avoiding doing too much this week before Wednesday.
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Waiting is trading. Trading is waiting.